Every year, we look back on preseason win totals produced by forecasters and betting markets and chuckle at some of the more egregious misses. Last season, the Chicago Bears were initially forecast for seven wins by Las Vegas, then traded for Khalil Mack and somehow won 12. The Green Bay Packers’s predicted win total was […]
Vegas is notoriously hard to beat. But as the NFL season gets started Thursday, there’s some promise for gamblers in betting on projected team win totals. Half-win totals from 8.5 on down seem to be very solid bets to hit the over, even when accounting for the vigorish, or house margin. Money-line data is only […]
The more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same. Fresh off of their sixth Super Bowl win with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, the defending champion New England Patriots open the 2019 season as our favorite to win again. The rest of the top contenders are similar to […]
UPDATED AUG. 27, 2019, AT 5:52 PM 2019 NFL Predictions For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game. More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts? Standings Games Quarterbacks Show our quarterback-adjusted Elo forecast Show our traditional Elo forecast 1636 NE-logoNew EnglandAFC East11-5+105.680%68%43%14% 1604 KC-logoKansas CityAFC West10-6+74.167%49%29%8% 1594 NO-logoNew OrleansNFC South10-6+64.562%45%25%7% 1584 […]
Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts? Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm called Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic […]