Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below. Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm called Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and […]
A good deal of FiveThirtyEight’s NFL coverage this season will use Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. As we’ve done in the past few years, we’re using those Elo ratings to calculate NFL predictions that include win probabilities and point […]
A good deal of FiveThirtyEight’s NFL coverage this season will use Elo ratings, a simple system that estimates each team’s skill level using only the final scores and locations of each game. As we’ve done in the past few years, we’re using those Elo ratings to calculate NFL predictions that include win probabilities and point […]
