Sports – FiveThirtyEight — Basketball RSS



NBA Player Projections

Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

Continue reading



The Las Vegas Aces Are Quietly Carving Out An Identity

From the moment they dealt for elite scorer Liz Cambage, the Las Vegas Aces became perhaps the WNBA’s most compelling team — not necessarily the best team, but certainly one with enough upside to make that claim by year’s end. Headlined by three All-Stars — Cambage, A’ja Wilson and Kayla McBride — the Aces’ top-five […]

Continue reading



DeMarcus Cousins’s Latest Injury Puts Him In Uncharted Territory

If you’ve logged off the NBA circuit for the summer — understandable given how crazy last month was, and how insane this upcoming season figures to be — you might have missed that DeMarcus Cousins of the Los Angeles Lakers suffered yet another serious injury, tearing his ACL in an offseason workout last week. Rewinding […]

Continue reading



Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season

The NBA, it is often said, has no offseason anymore — and so, we are determined to keep pace. That’s why we have already reloaded the FiveThirtyEight NBA prediction model to include updated projections and probabilities for the 2019-20 season, three months before the regular season actually tips off. Because the NBA never stops. What’s […]

Continue reading



2019-20 NBA Predictions

How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based […]

Continue reading