Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
From the moment they dealt for elite scorer Liz Cambage, the Las Vegas Aces became perhaps the WNBA’s most compelling team — not necessarily the best team, but certainly one with enough upside to make that claim by year’s end. Headlined by three All-Stars — Cambage, A’ja Wilson and Kayla McBride — the Aces’ top-five […]
If you’ve logged off the NBA circuit for the summer — understandable given how crazy last month was, and how insane this upcoming season figures to be — you might have missed that DeMarcus Cousins of the Los Angeles Lakers suffered yet another serious injury, tearing his ACL in an offseason workout last week. Rewinding […]
The NBA, it is often said, has no offseason anymore — and so, we are determined to keep pace. That’s why we have already reloaded the FiveThirtyEight NBA prediction model to include updated projections and probabilities for the 2019-20 season, three months before the regular season actually tips off. Because the NBA never stops. What’s […]
How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based […]