Statheads know that it usually takes roughly 70 games for baseball results to really start meaning something. On the first day of May a year ago, the New York Mets were 17-9 and the Los Angeles Dodgers were 12-16. Needless to say, both these teams’ fortunes would change: The Mets immediately collapsed into oblivion; the […]
One of the cool features in our MLB predictions model at FiveThirtyEight is its ability to adjust a team’s odds of winning any given game based on the strength of its starting pitcher. We do this by maintaining a constantly updating rating of every starter in baseball, which refreshes after every start based on our […]
Editor’s note: This article is adapted from previous articles about how our MLB predictions work. With spring upon us once again, it’s time to roll out FiveThirtyEight’s baseball predictions for another season of major league action. We first introduced our MLB team ratings during the 2015 postseason and used them to survey the playoff picture. […]
Editor’s note: This article is adapted from previous articles about how our MLB predictions work. With spring upon us once again, it’s time to roll out FiveThirtyEight’s baseball predictions for another season of major league action. We first introduced our MLB team ratings during the 2015 postseason and used them to survey the playoff picture. […]
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to win their respective conferences and reach the NBA Finals. That’s according to FiveThirtyEight’s “CARM-Elo” projections, which we’ve just launched for the 2017-18 NBA season. The Warriors and Cavs project to be the best regular-season teams in […]