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Is Vegas Underrating The Warriors?

Our NBA playoff projections, which are based on a version of Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi’s Real Plus-Minus ratings (RPM), give the Golden State Warriors a 48 percent chance of winning the NBA title. Other statistical systems hold the Dubs in similarly high regard: The playoff probabilities at Basketball-Reference.com give them a 47 percent chance […]

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Is Vegas Underrating The Warriors?

Our NBA playoff projections, which are based on a version of Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi’s Real Plus-Minus ratings (RPM), give the Golden State Warriors a 48 percent chance of winning the NBA title. Other statistical systems hold the Dubs in similarly high regard: The playoff probabilities at Basketball-Reference.com give them a 47 percent chance […]

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2015 NBA Playoffs Preview

The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and like the 16 teams vying for the Larry O’Brien trophy, we’ve come prepared — not with basketball skills, mind you, but with graphics and numbers. Using the latest (postseason-optimized) version of FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Power Ratings, we simulated the playoff bracket 10,000 times, counting how often each team […]

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2015 NBA Playoffs Preview

The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and like the 16 teams vying for the Larry O’Brien trophy, we’ve come prepared — not with basketball skills, mind you, but with graphics and numbers. Using the latest (postseason-optimized) version of FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Power Ratings, we simulated the playoff bracket 10,000 times, counting how often each team […]

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NBA Power Ratings And Playoff Odds: The Cavs Make A Move

Last week, we introduced our NBA Power Ratings, an estimate of each team’s strength over the next week of action. The ratings are based on Real Plus-Minus (RPM) player ratings provided by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi; for a more detailed explanation of the process behind these numbers, see our debut rankings post. A few […]

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