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How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results

We often hear announcers and commentators say a baseball team is “on pace” to win and lose a certain number of games, by simply applying a team’s current winning percentage over 162 games. Those statements may technically be true, but in a randomness-filled reality, they’re meaningless. Sabermetrics constantly struggles with randomness, an unavoidable fact of […]

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How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results

We often hear announcers and commentators say a baseball team is “on pace” to win and lose a certain number of games, by simply applying a team’s current winning percentage over 162 games. Those statements may technically be true, but in a randomness-filled reality, they’re meaningless. Sabermetrics constantly struggles with randomness, an unavoidable fact of […]

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If Hank Aaron Had Never Hit a Home Run, Would He Be a Hall of Famer?

Tuesday was the 40th anniversary of Hank Aaron’s record-breaking 715th home run. Aaron extended his record to 755 home runs, and his record was eventually eclipsed by Barry Bonds in 2007. I was struck by Joe Posnanski’s reflection on Aaron: The degree to which Aaron’s reputation is associated with the home-run record in some ways […]

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If Hank Aaron Had Never Hit a Home Run, Would He Be a Hall of Famer?

Tuesday was the 40th anniversary of Hank Aaron’s record-breaking 715th home run. Aaron extended his record to 755 home runs, and his record was eventually eclipsed by Barry Bonds in 2007. I was struck by Joe Posnanski’s reflection on Aaron: The degree to which Aaron’s reputation is associated with the home-run record in some ways […]

Continue reading