If you followed FiveThirtyEight’s coverage during the World Cup, you know that we’re big fans of the World Football Elo Ratings. They’re based on a relatively simple system developed by the physicist Arpad Elo to rate chess players. But they can be adapted fairly easily for other head-to-head competitions from baseball to backgammon. We thought […]
If you followed FiveThirtyEight’s coverage during the World Cup, you know that we’re big fans of the World Football Elo Ratings. They’re based on a relatively simple system developed by the physicist Arpad Elo to rate chess players. But they can be adapted fairly easily for other head-to-head competitions from baseball to backgammon. We thought […]
Each week throughout the NFL season, we’ll be publishing Elo ratings for teams and using them to simulate the remainder of the season, and calculate each team’s chances of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Read about our methodology for details about how the system works. Elo ratings have been applied in many […]
Each week throughout the NFL season, we’ll be publishing Elo ratings for teams and using them to simulate the remainder of the season, and calculate each team’s chances of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Read about our methodology for details about how the system works. Elo ratings have been applied in many […]
NFL coaches can be obsessed with their teams’ run-pass balances. (In fact, each staff has an assistant coach who tracks the ratio of run plays to pass plays during a game.) Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll once said his ideal ratio of runs to passes was 50-50. But passing becomes more necessary as teams trail […]
