This has not been an enormously surprising NFL season. The four teams remaining in the playoffs — the Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts — were well liked by Vegas bettors before the season began. There are a couple of compelling story lines surrounding Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. […]
One blind spot of the analytics movement has been its underappreciation of postseason play. I don’t necessarily mean that “COUNT THE RINGZ” is a better paradigm. But there are all sorts of interesting empirical questions raised by the playoffs that analysts have sometimes ignored. Are the factors that yield postseason success different than those that […]
One blind spot of the analytics movement has been its underappreciation of postseason play. I don’t necessarily mean that “COUNT THE RINGZ” is a better paradigm. But there are all sorts of interesting empirical questions raised by the playoffs that analysts have sometimes ignored. Are the factors that yield postseason success different than those that […]
With the NFL’s regular season concluding last Sunday, our Elo ratings have, in some ways, completed their broadest purpose: to track the league’s horse race by providing a weekly top-to-bottom ranking of all 32 teams. (You can see the final regular-season ratings below.) By dint of their historically great Elo rating, the Seattle Seahawks might […]
With the NFL’s regular season concluding last Sunday, our Elo ratings have, in some ways, completed their broadest purpose: to track the league’s horse race by providing a weekly top-to-bottom ranking of all 32 teams. (You can see the final regular-season ratings below.) By dint of their historically great Elo rating, the Seattle Seahawks might […]
