Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): OK, we have a special politics chat team gathered today to talk about this: When do states flip? From red to blue, or blue to red, or whatever. The impetus for this question is a Quinnipiac poll […]
The first major public poll of the U.S. Senate race in Texas showed Republican incumbent Ted Cruz leading Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke by only 3 points. This week, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team debates whether there’s reason to believe that the race is actually that close. Fittingly, the crew also discusses new Associated Press guidelines […]
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week For some time, the conventional wisdom (and I largely agree with it) around the upcoming midterms has been that Democrats are modest favorites to win the House, while Republicans are likely to hold the Senate. Democrats, who have 49 Senate seats at the moment, […]
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Everywhere You Look” from the television show “Full House.” Poll of the week Gallup this week released 2017 job approval ratings for President Trump in all 50 states. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in there. But one data point seemed to catch people’s […]
Americans inclined to pay attention to these sorts of things have engaged in some distinctly Calvinist political thinking of late: that the Senate map for 2018 is predestined to stay Republican. The GOP currently controls 52 seats to the Democrats’ 48 (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats). The Democrats would need to flip […]