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There’s Been A Massive Shift To The Right In The Immigration Debate

President Trump’s disparaging comments in an Oval Office meeting last week about Haiti and “shithole” (or “shithouse”) African countries felt like the immigration debate had reached a new place. It has — but not just because of that meeting. There’s been a massive conservative shift in the ongoing debate over immigration. With Republicans in control […]

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What Was Most Surprising About Trump’s First Year?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Welcome, everyone, to our final chat before the one-year anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration!!! Or is it just “the anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration”? In any case … we’re going to mark the occasion by looking back […]

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Infrastructure Is A Political Opportunity For Trump That Will Likely Go To Waste

President Trump and congressional Republicans are expected to make the country’s infrastructure (think airports, bridges, cellphone towers, public schools and roads) one of their major legislative priorities this year. It’s a big opportunity for Republicans — particularly the president. But I’m pretty sure they’re not going to be able to take advantage of it. Let […]

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Are Democrats’ Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated?

After Democrat Doug Jones won a stunning victory in Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate last month, lots of smart people whose work I read and follow, such as The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, declared that the battle for Senate control in 2018 was a “toss-up.” Prediction markets largely concur; after Jones’s win, […]

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Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?

Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout — the Democratic base came out and voted. It’s now 2018, though. A midterm year. And if you’ve followed politics […]

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