References Hockey-Reference.com / Elo ratings / Autocorrelation / Monte Carlo simulations / Logistic regression / Poisson distribution The Details In 2021, we added hockey to the list of sports that FiveThirtyEight forecasts using the Elo rating system. To create Elo for the NHL, we used results from every game in league history dating back to […]
Since 2014, FiveThirtyEight has used Elo ratings to assess and predict NFL games. But while we love Elo, we were curious: Can you forecast the games better than our favorite system? We’re giving you the chance to play along and test your forecasting acumen against Elo. Every week of the NFL season — including the […]
References Basketball-Reference.com / Elo ratings / Monte Carlo simulations The Details We kind of love Elo ratings at FiveThirtyEight — we’ve used them to forecast the NFL, NBA and MLB and to cover various other sports and tournaments over the years. We created Elo ratings for the WNBA in 2020, tracking team strength back to […]
RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. We’re pretty excited about it. In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: First, we wanted to create a publicly available statistic that takes advantage of modern NBA […]
References Brian Burke’s Excitement Index / DonBest injury report / ESPN’s BPI / Sports-Reference.com Jeff Sagarin’s ratings / Joel Sokol’s LRMC ratings / Ken Massey’s ratings / Ken Pomeroy’s ratings / Sonny Moore’s ratings (men, women) The Details We’ve been issuing probabilistic March Madness forecasts in some form since 2011, when FiveThirtyEight was just a […]