Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): OK, we have a special politics chat team gathered today to talk about this: When do states flip? From red to blue, or blue to red, or whatever. The impetus for this question is a Quinnipiac poll […]
For the second time in 2018, voters will go to the polls to replace a Republican congressman who resigned. But Tuesday’s special election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District — which Rep. Trent Franks vacated in December after reportedly offering one of his staffers $5 million to carry his child — is expected to have a […]
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week The electorate in 2020 is likely to be similar to 2016’s. This should worry people in both parties — for different reasons, of course. Our poll of the week is not technically one poll, but an in-depth study that looks at the changing demographics […]
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Here’s my plan, if it works for everyone: The overarching question will be “Is James Comey’s book/publicity tour helping or hurting the case against President Trump?” You can interpret “the case” however you want, but I mostly […]
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week For some time, the conventional wisdom (and I largely agree with it) around the upcoming midterms has been that Democrats are modest favorites to win the House, while Republicans are likely to hold the Senate. Democrats, who have 49 Senate seats at the moment, […]